If you're just getting into betting on football, you may be wondering which bets are the easiest to win. Although these bets often have low odds — meaning that you won't make huge profits — there's a high likelihood they'll be correct. As a result, we'll take this article as an opportunity to look at five of the easiest football bets there are (and some of the difficult ones)!
What Makes an Easy Bet?
Simply put, easy bets are bets with a high chance of being correct, which means they usually have the lowest odds. You can think of easy bets as bets with low risk, but also low reward.
For example, bets with a 50% chance of being correct might have odds of around 2.00. Easy bets often have odds as low as 1.05, which implies a more than 95% chance they are correct!
Once you have selected the top three places in the race, you need to proceed to pick out the runner that have odds of between 3.0 (2/1) and 5.8 (4.8/1) and lay against the one with the least chance of winning in that race. By implementing this you should be able to fish out the winner more than 80% of the time. Simply put, easy bets are bets with a high chance of being correct, which means they usually have the lowest odds. You can think of easy bets as bets with low risk, but also low reward. For example, bets with a 50% chance of being correct might have odds of around 2.00. Better to bet on your player scoring anytime. The odds aren't as long or as attractive as with first goalscorer, but you're more likely to win the bet, and so to get a return. This is another example of, with a bit of astute application of knowledge, how to always win football bets.
The 5 Easiest Football Bets to Win
Here are five easy football bets with high likelihoods of being correct:
Over/Under
One of the easiest football bets is Over/Under. This bet allows you to speculate on whether a given match will have more (Over) or less (Under) than a certain number of goals. Over/Under bets can have a high chance of being correct if you choose an Over bet for a low number of goals (e.g. 0.5), or an Under bet for a high number of goals (e.g. 6.5).
For example, a bet for Over 0.5 goals means that at least one goal needs to be scored during the course of an entire 90-minute football match for you to win. For a lot of football teams, this is no tough task, so odds for this bet can be as low as 1.04.
On the flipside, you can place a bet for Under 6.5 goals. That means that as long as less than six goals are scored during the match, you'll win.
2. First Half Over/Under
A variation on the Over/Under bet is First (or Second) Half Over/Under. As the name suggests, this bet involves speculating on the number of goals that will be scored in the first or second half of the match.
Since these bets impose a specific time limit (one half of the match), they are less likely than full-match Over/Under bets. However, First or Second Half Over bets for low numbers of goals and First or Second Half Under bets for high numbers of goals can still have a high chance of being correct.
3. Double Chance
Another easy football bet is Double Chance, which allows you to bet on two of three possible outcomes for the match. The options for Double Chance are:
- Home or Draw: the home team wins or the match results in a draw
- Draw or Away: the away team wins or the match results in a draw
- Home or Away: the home team wins or the away team wins
Since Double Chance allows you to bet on not one, but two possible outcomes, it's much more likely to be correct than a straight Home, Away, or Draw bet. Depending on the strengths of the teams, odds for Home or Draw or Draw or Away bets can have odds as low as 1.10 and even lower.
4. Draw No Bet
Draw No Bet allows you to speculate on a given team winning the match while insulating yourself from a draw. In other words, if the outcome of the draw is a match, the bet is cancelled and the money is returned. This makes Draw No Bet an easier bet to win than a regular Home or regular Away bet.
5. Both Teams to Score
For some matches, especially those featuring two aggressive teams, a likely outcome is that both teams will score. This can make Both Teams to Score an easy bet to win.
Hard/Difficult Football Bets to Win
While there are some easy bets to win, there are plenty of difficult bets. Although these bets have a much higher risk, they can have significantly higher odds (and thus a higher reward).
Correct Score
One of the most difficult football bets is Correct Score, where you speculate on the exact, final score of the match. Since Correct Score involves speculating on a very specific outcome, it's much less likely to be correct and thus has much higher odds.
2. Half Time Score
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Another variation on the Correct Score bet is Half Time Score. As you might expect, this involves betting on the exact score of the match at half time, which is often a specific, unlikely outcome.
3. Odd or Even
One bet which is consistently difficult is Odd or Even. This involves speculating on whether the total number of goals scored in the match will be odd or even. If lots of goals are scored in a match, this can be very difficult to predict.
Should You Place Hard or Easy Bets?
We've looked at some of the easiest and hardest football bets there are. What you're probably wondering is whether it's more profitable to place hard or easy bets.
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While easy bets have a higher chance of being correct, they usually have low odds, which means little profit involved. On the other hand, hard bets may be unlikely, but have high odds and thus greater profit.
As a result, there's no real benefit to strictly placing one type of bet. Instead, you should place bets which have the most favourable odds when compared to their true likelihood.
Final Thoughts
There are plenty of easy bets out there, from Over/Under to Double Chance. Although these bets have a high likelihood of being correct, they usually have very low odds. On the flipside, hard benefits boast high odds, but have a high chance of being incorrect. As a result, you shouldn't necessarily favour easy or hard bets. Instead, you should place bets that have the most favourable odds, bearing in mind the likelihood you expect for them.
The statement I'm about to make will most certainly shock any sports bettor who reads it. While most of us are under the impression that everyone betting sports wins long term, so long as they bet often enough, this isn't actually true.
Wait you're not surprised? Of course you're not! Everyone knows the bookmaker has an advantage so more times than not sports bettors lose. However, what if there was a way that the rolls could be reversed; what if the sports bettor always had the advantage?
This is in fact possible.
Have you ever heard the term advantage player? This is a label gambling companies assign to players who only bet when the odds are in their favor.
Even though 'on average' bookmakers have a 4.55% advantage on straight bets (2.38% @ -105), the key word is 'average'; advantage players find bets where the bookmaker's advantage is negative. Whether your goal is to be a sports betting pro, or just earn a little money on the side, the first step to winning is to stop making –EV bets.
If you understand what expected value, -EV, and +EV mean, go ahead and skip down to our advice on finding +EV bets. If you're not familiar with this concept continue reading.
Expected Value (EV) Explained
Expected value is a term professional gamblers use on a regular basis. To explain what it means in simple terms I'll use an example. Let's say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each outcome of tails. We could flip coins for all eternity and neither of us will ever have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. While there will be swings back and forth, as long as we flip the coin enough times eventually we'll both break even. This particular bet has neutral expected value.
Now let's say I'm tired of flipping coins, and want to quit, but while begging me to stay you offer me a better deal. This new deal pays me $1.10 for every heads, and I still pay you $1.00 for every tails. What happens now is half the time I win $1.10 and half the time I lose $1.00. If we flip 100 times I should average 50 wins of $1.10 ($55) and 50 losses of $1 ($50). Every flip of the coin I have a positive expectation (+EV) of 5 cents. As the one offering me this proposition you have the opposite, every flip of the coin is 5 cents –EV for you.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (+EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases neutral expected value. Winning sports betting requires avoiding –EV and finding +EV bets.
Finding +EV Sports Bets
The reasons most sports bettors don't spend time learning the tricks of advantage players is it's slightly time consuming, most have no leads how to do it, are overwhelmed or when they do learn it's not actually fun. If you're looking for something fun we suggest paint balling, a trip to the amusement park, circus or what have you. If you're looking to actually make money then you'll need to know how to find +EV bets.
At TheSportsGeek.com we have several articles on this topic you'll want to read:
Teaser Betting Strategy – This is perhaps the easiest method a sports bettor can use to find bets with a positive advantage. When you also read our article on the current betting market, you'll realize just before game time the lines are efficient. Teasers are based off the current betting lines, so no longer do you need to go do any deep analysis to find out whether as straight bet is +EV. Here find spots where teasers increase the win rate by enough and you'll have a +EV bet. This is all described in our article on teaser betting strategy.
Prop Betting Strategy – Prop bets are generally considered the easiest wagering opportunity for sports bettors to beat. In our article on prop betting strategy I give a full break down of the prop bet 'which team will score first'. After reading that article you'll have enough information to start finding +EV bets on this specific prop. In time, as you get experience you'll be able to solve other prop bet on your own and then beat them using as similar method to the one I show in the example.
Must Read Sports Betting Books
If you're new to advantage betting some books that will help you greatly with the basics are:
1) Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong
2) Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao
Once you're much more experienced and ready to take things to the next level then I strongly Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. This is a book for advanced sports bettors and not a good read for anyone not already winning. It is heavily math, statistic and handicapping intensive. If you eventually decided on a career as an advantage player at some point down the road you'll want to work to understand what Elihu D. Feustel shares in this book.
No matter what methods you use to find +EV bets, the information contained in our article on finding maximum value is a must read. Next, if you're thinking about purchasing picks, read our article on winning without a tout. In that article you'll also find some information on getting free picks. Use that with the earlier mention getting max value article, and shopping the market and you'll likely be turning an easy, yet slightly time consuming profit.
With this out of the way let me now cover the easiest way to get your bankroll started: 'Bonus Whoring'.
A Free Lunch in Sports Betting
If you've heard the saying there is no such thing as a free lunch, well think again. Here are some bonuses that sports betting sites offer to players making their first deposit:
At the time of writing this Bookmaker is offering a massive holiday bonus of 25% up to $2,500 sports + 175% up to $1,000 poker + 100% up to $250 casino. If you don't have an account, visit Bookmaker and register using Bonus Code THEGEEK on the sign up field. After logging in, head to the cashier where the available 'deposit bonus codes' will be listed. Use this code and you'll now have the added advantage of massive free play bonus.
Bovada offers 10% cash bonus on bettor's first deposit. The best thing about this bonus is it is instant and it's cash (as opposed to free play). Also no crazy strings such as rollover, hold period etc, simply roll your initial deposit and 10% bonus over a single time and it is free and clear your own money to keep.
Here you can get up to $1,000 in free bonus money. Getting the max bonus is a multi step process. First sign up, and be sure to leave the Promotion Code field empty. Next follow the steps on our BetOnline Bonus page to negotiate a massive bonus with their live support.
When you combine +EV bets with free bonus cash, winning at sports betting is a cinch. The only piece of the puzzle you have left is protecting and growing your bankroll. Our best advice here, never wager more than a few percent of what you have on hand on a single game.
Once you have this all down, while it takes other sports bettors a lot of luck to win, the opposite is true for you. A bookie beating an advantage player who uses responsible bet sizing, keeps his composure during downswings while making only +EV bets, is quite difficult. Follow this and the only ways you lose is horrible bad luck!
Once again don't forget to take advantage of the bonus at www.Bovada.lv!
We wish you the best of luck and know soon enough you'll be shacking your head confused the same at us, whenever you hear the statement 'most sports bettors lose' and clearly you won't be on of them.
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